Denver Metro Housing Market, October 2026: The Week It Changed
What happened to the Denver Metro housing market in October 2026?
Closings fell 20% and contracts fell 22% from October 2025, but the median sale price held at $585,000. The slowdown started in one specific week in September, not gradually.
Download the report and the slides
Everything in this post is in a 6-page PDF and a set of carousel images. Neither has my name or logo on it.
Full October report (PDF): click here to download
Carousel slides (8 sets): click here to open the folder
They are yours to download and share with your buyers and sellers. The full breakdown, with talking points for each finding, is below.
Why I look at the data this way
Every month the national headlines tell agents the same thing: rates are high, inventory is up, the market is rough. That is true and it is also useless when a seller asks you why their house is not selling.
So each month I download every sale, listing, pending contract, expired and withdrawn listing out of the MLS for the six core Denver Metro counties and go looking for the story nobody else is publishing. This month the story is not that the market slowed. It is when it slowed, and what did not move with it.
The data covers Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties, single-family, townhome and condo only, compared against October 2025 and October 2024.
1. The week Denver's market changed
Through July and August, Denver Metro buyers signed contracts at almost exactly last year's pace. Weekly contract signings ran just 3.5% behind 2025 over those two months.
Then the week of September 7 came in 21% below the same week of 2025: 596 contracts against 758. It never recovered. Every single week of October ran 20% to 30% below last year.
What else happened in those weeks
The 30-year fixed average rose from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.40% on October 8, the highest since November 2023 (Freddie Mac).
The Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16, its first increase since July 2023.
Nationally, NAR's pending home sales fell 11.3% year over year in September, and 15% in the West.
One honest note, because an agent will raise it: the timing lines up with the rate jump, but rates were not the only thing moving. Treat this as correlation, not proof.
A note on the 2025 numbers: contracts are counted by purchase contract date, and the 2025 counts only include deals that later closed. Some 2025 contracts fell apart, so the true gap is likely a little larger than shown.
2. Fewer sales, same price
October closings fell from 3,450 to 2,754, down 20% and the lowest October of the three years I compared. But the median sale price was $585,000, against $584,450 a year ago. This is a volume story, not a price crash.
The split by property type is where it gets useful:
Single-family: $642,000 in October 2024, $640,000 in 2025, $640,000 in 2026. Flat for three Octobers.
Townhomes: $459,000 to $415,000 over two years, down 10%, the biggest drop of any type.
Condos: $335,000 to $310,000 over two years, down 7%.
What to tell your clients
To a seller: if you own a house, your value is likely close to last year. If you own a condo or townhome, last year's number may be too high. Price against this year's sales.
To a buyer: waiting for a crash on detached homes hasn't paid off. The negotiating room is in condos and townhomes.
3. Cash didn't flinch
Higher rates hit one kind of buyer much harder than the other. Compared with October 2025, financed purchases fell 23%. Cash purchases fell only 9%.
22% of October buyers paid cash, the highest share in the 34 months of data I track. Before August 2026 it never topped 20%.
In the $1 million to $1.5 million range, 33% paid cash, up from 25% last October.
Above $1.5 million, 45% paid cash, up from 39%.
For sellers, that means clean terms and a quick close matter more than they did a year ago. For financed buyers, it means more cash competition than usual, so a strong pre-approval and a responsive lender carry more weight. For what any of this means for a monthly payment, send them to their lender.
4. Denver isn't one market
Months of supply is active listings divided by monthly sales. Under about 4 months generally favors sellers, over 6 favors buyers. Across all six counties it was 4.4 months in October. That average hides two very different markets:
Single-family homes under $400,000: 2.6 months. 428 for sale, 162 sold in October. Still a seller's market.
Condos: 8.8 months. 2,591 for sale, 295 sold. Condo buyers have real leverage.
A condo offer and an entry-level house offer should look very different right now. Don't let a metro-wide headline price a home in a segment that behaves nothing like the average.
5. The city leaderboard
Among cities with at least 25 October sales, using the mailing city on the listing:
Wheat Ridge: 2.4 months. Median 11 days on market for October sales.
Broomfield and Highlands Ranch: 2.9 months each.
Arvada, Golden and Evergreen: 3.1 months each.
At the other end, Lakewood sits at 5.7 months, with Denver and Aurora at 5.1. The full table of 18 cities, with median price and days on market for each, is in the PDF.
In a 2-to-3-month city a seller can price with confidence. In a 5-month city a buyer can reasonably ask for more, whether that is price, repairs or closing costs.
6. Homes aren't sitting longer. They're leaving.
This is the myth I hear most: everything is sitting. The data says otherwise. October sales went under contract in a median 29 days, slightly faster than last October's 31. And 1 in 4 went under contract within a week.
What changed is what happens to the listings that don't get that early attention. They expire or get pulled:
August: 7.7 expired or withdrawn listings for every 10 sales.
September: 8.3 for every 10.
October: 9.2 for every 10. That is 1,945 expired and 602 withdrawn against 2,754 sales.
The market is splitting in two. It is fast for the right price and closed for the wrong one. Buyers should watch the expireds, because a seller who didn't sell this fall may be more flexible when they relist.
7. The stale shelf, and what missing the first weeks costs
Of the 12,085 homes for sale in early November, 34% had been on the market more than 90 days and 60% had already taken at least one price cut. The median active listing had been on the market 63 days.
To show what that costs a seller, I use a number I call the giveback: original list price minus the final sale price, plus any seller concessions. Agents usually track the price cut and the concession separately. Added together, the spread is hard to ignore:
Sold in the first week: median giveback of $5,000.
Sold after 91 to 180 days: median giveback of $65,250.
The caveat matters here too: homes that sit longer include homes that were overpriced on day one, so time on market is not the only cause. But it is the conversation to have with a seller before the listing goes live, not after the second price cut. Also worth knowing: 65% of October sales included a seller concession, with a median of $10,000 among the sales that had one.
8. Your dollar buys more house
This is the stat buyers never hear. Median price per square foot fell from $305 in October 2024 to $287 in October 2026, down 6%, and it fell in every property type:
Single-family: $303 to $291, down 4%.
Townhomes: $305 to $277, down 9%.
Condos: $317 to $281, down 11%.
At today's single-family median, $640,000 buys about 2,203 square feet. Two years ago it bought about 2,109. That is roughly 94 more square feet for the same money. Prices didn't crash, but a buyer's dollar stretches further than it did.
How the national picture compares
Denver is tracking the national story with a little extra weight. Nationally, active listings were up 7.4% year over year in October according to Realtor.com, and NAR's September pending sales were down 11.3%. Denver Metro's October contracts were down 22%, roughly in line with the West, where pendings fell 15% in September.
The difference worth pointing out to clients is price. The national headlines lean on rising inventory. In Denver Metro, detached home prices have barely moved in three years. The adjustment is happening in volume, in attached homes and in what sellers give back, not in the headline median.
Put these numbers to work
As an Account Executive with Chicago Title of Colorado, my job is to hand Denver Metro agents data like this, plus the marketing to go with it, and then make the closing smooth. If any of this sparks an idea for your business, I would love to talk it through:
A listing that's sitting. Just reply with the address and let's chat through the strategy.
A neighborhood you farm. Reach out and we can look at what the data says there.
Getting a listing in front of the right people. Let's talk creative marketing ideas.
Grab the October files
If you skipped to the end: here is the 6-page October PDF and the folder of carousel slides. Share them with your clients.
Frequently asked questions
Are Denver home prices dropping in 2026?
Not overall. The Denver Metro median sale price in October 2026 was $585,000, essentially flat against $584,450 in October 2025. Single-family prices held at $640,000, while condos and townhomes are down 7% and 10% over two years.
Why did Denver home sales drop in fall 2026?
Contract signings fell sharply starting the week of September 7, 2026, the same weeks that mortgage rates climbed past 7% and the Federal Reserve raised rates. The timing lines up, but other factors were changing too, so it is a correlation rather than proof.
Is Denver a buyer's or seller's market right now?
It depends on the segment. Overall supply was 4.4 months in October 2026, which is balanced. Single-family homes under $400,000 had 2.6 months, a seller's market, while condos had 8.8 months, a buyer's market.
How many Denver homes sell with seller concessions?
In October 2026, 65% of Denver Metro sales included a seller concession, up from 64% in October 2025 and 61% in October 2024. Among sales with a concession, the median was $10,000.
Where does this data come from?
REcolorado MLS closed, active, pending, expired and withdrawn listing data for Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson counties, single-family, townhome and condo only. Closed sales are deduplicated by listing ID. Mortgage rates are Freddie Mac weekly averages. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Want more tools, tactics, and resources like this? Subscribe to my weekly emails at milehightitleguy.com. I share real estate marketing ideas, AI tools, and invites to upcoming classes and events across Colorado.
Jerad Larkin
The Mile High Title Guy
Chicago Title of Colorado
303.630.9430 | Info@MileHighTitleGuy.com
Comments